Taking a look at some political developments outside the boundaries of Georgia:
The Minnesota Supreme Court is expected to rule within a few days on the long-running dispute between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman over who will be declared the winner of the race for Coleman’s old seat in the U.S. Senate.
Franken was declared to be ahead by 312 votes after a recount and that result has been upheld in every subsequent legal proceeding by judges who are both Democratic and Republican. There are mistakes made in the administration of every election in every state – poll workers are only human, after all – but I don’t think there’s any doubt that Franken got the most votes in an election that appeared to be fairly conducted in compliance with Minnesota’s election laws. Only the most hardcore members of the Republican base still want to make the discredited contention that the election was “stolen” and some of them even appear to be losing interest in the never-ending appeals of Coleman’s exceedingly weak case.
The one remaining hurdle in Minnesota is Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty. There are some doubts among Democrats that Pawlenty, even if ordered to by the state’s highest court, will sign the certificate attesting to Franken’s victory. Those doubts intensified this week when Pawlenty announced he would not run for a third term in 2010. Pawlenty, a possible candidate for president, no longer has to worry about the opinions of his state’s disgruntled voters, so he can curry favor with Republicans nationally by delaying or refusing to sign the election certificate.
At that point, Senate Democrats do have an option. Once the Minnesota Supreme Court has ruled Franken the winner – and legal experts fully expect it to — the Senate could move to a vote to seat Franken, even without a signed certificate from Pawlenty. That’s assuming Majority Leader Harry Reid has the backbone to stand up to the 40-member Republican caucus, which is never a safe assumption to make.
Besides losing his Senate seat, Coleman has likely destroyed any prospects he may have had for running for political office again – such as for governor in 2010 when Pawlenty steps down. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post reported that recent polls show Coleman has lost 15 points off his approval numbers by refusing to concede the election and preventing the state from having both senators in office.
Said Cillizza:
A poll done for the Minneapolis Star Tribune in late April crystallized the decline of Coleman’s popularity. Just 38 percent of those polled had a favorable opinion of him while 55 percent saw him in an unfavorable light, an almost total reversal from the 53 percent favorable/33 percent unfavorable score Coleman had roughly a year earlier in another Strib poll.
Aside from the poll numbers, Coleman might also have a hard time pivoting from seven months of legal challenges in the Senate race to a gubernatorial campaign; it could well create a sort of whiplash effect for voters that is far from ideal for a candidate.
In retrospect, Coleman could well have positioned himself to be the odds-on favorite for the gubernatorial nomination if he had stepped aside in early January after a state canvassing board certified a 225-vote Franken margin.
But, Coleman chose to pursue a far different course — using every legal tool at his disposal to contest the result. If he doesn’t win his challenge before the Minnesota Supreme Court, he may well look back at the path he chose with regret as it almost certainly eliminated the possibility of a run for governor in 2010.
Some reasons to feel upbeat
The Republican Party is in the depths of a serious downturn – barely 21 percent of the nation’s voters self-identify as Republicans in recent polls and the Democrats hold firm control in Washington – but there are a couple of reasons for the GOP to feel optimistic this year.
The two major races for governor are in Virginia and New Jersey and Republicans have a chance of taking back one or both of those positions from Democratic control.
Primary elections will be held in the Old Dominion next Tuesday to determine which Democrat will face off against former attorney general Bob McDonnell in the general election. McDonnell has been running a few points ahead of all three Democrats in recent polls: Terry McAuliffe, Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran.
A new poll by Survey USA shows that McAuliffe, the former Democratic Party head and the early frontrunner, has been losing ground but still holds a 35-29 percent edge over Deeds, with Moran at 26 percent.
A Research 2000 poll also shows that McAuliffe is slipping: Deeds 30 percent, Moran 27 percent and McAuliffe 26 percent.
New Jersey’s Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine also has a tough battle ahead in November as he tries for a second term. Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie won the Republican nomination this week and has been beating up on Corzine by a rather large margin in the early polls.
Hell hath no fury, chapter 762
reports that Dawn Gibbons, the wife of Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons, has
signed on to support Democrat Harry Reid’s campaign for another Senate
term in 2010. Dawn Gibbons, who at one time was a Republican
legislator in Nevada, is currently seeking a divorce from her spouse.
Fail, yeah!
Lest anyone think that he’s changed his mind on the subject, talk show host Rush Limbaugh told Sean Hannity this in an interview this week:
“I don’t hide from it. I do want and I still want Obama to fail.”
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