Did healthcare reform die with Kennedy?

“The dream shall never die,” was the ringing declaration once made by Sen. Ted Kennedy. But with Kennedy’s death from brain cancer at age 77, his dream of universal health insurance coverage for all citizens may well have died with him.

Progressive Democrats in Congress are fighting against Republicans and the Democrats who call themselves Blue Dogs over the final version of the health insurance reform bill. The progressives want a public option in the bill that would enable people without health insurance to get coverage from a government-administered entity. Without a public option, there’s really no need to pass a sham of a healthcare bill, which is precisely why the Republicans and Blue Dogs are fighting against that provision.

The odds are pretty good that a bill with a public option will be passed by the House, but the odds get a lot shorter in the Senate, where Republicans can use the filibuster to try to prevent a final vote. The Democrats need 60 votes to break a filibuster and that was once the number of senators in their caucus.

Kennedy’s death reduces the Democratic caucus to 59 and there is little chance that he will be replaced in time for his successor to make a vote on the healthcare bill.

In this case, Democrats have screwed themselves through the law of unintended consequences. In 2004 when Sen. John Kerry was running for president, Bay State Democrats feared that if Kerry were elected, Republican Gov. Mitt Romney would appoint his successor. The legislature passed a new law that requires a Senate seat to remain vacant for 145 to 160 days until a special election is held. The intent of legislative Democrats was to prevent Romney from putting a Republican in the Senate (which became a moot point when Kerry lost the presidential election), but the unintended consequence is that the law prevents Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick from appointing a successor to Kennedy immediately.

Kennedy’s replacement probably won’t be elected until early next year, which would be well after the Senate debates the healthcare reform bill. Without Kennedy, and with West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd in frail health, the Democrats won’t have the 60 votes they would need to end a filibuster. If there’s no vote, there is no healthcare plan with a public option and Republicans will have achieved a huge legislative victory.

It would be ironic if Kennedy, through his death, also helped kill the healthcare legislation he wanted to see passed.