Roy heads to a runoff
Thurmond loses in a landslide.
Marshall goes bye-byes (probably epically too).
Bishop wins.
We win one Constitutional Office. It won’t be Moffett, Martin, or Powell.
Legislature gets more Republican.
Democrats retain both chambers.
OPEN THREAD!!!!
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Whatever. I just go to the poll, and vote in the race on the ballot.
‘”Democrats retain both chambers” I thought Miss Jill was republican.’
What you did there. I see it.
If you go from 66% to under 50%, you’re losing.
That is no longer considered to be the gospel:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/11/incumbents-polling-below-50-often-win-re-election-despite-conventional-wisdom/
When I worked for the caucus/party back in 2004/2006 we had plenty of incumbents on both sides poll well below 50 (often something like 43-35) and the leader in the poll almost always won, even if they were well below 50 and especially if they are an incumbent.
The higher profile the race maybe – but think about it…say a race is 48-46 according to a poll, all it takes is for some of that undecided to just be non-voters who somehow made it through the likely voter screen for 48 to to turn into 50. And in many cases, these undecideds have expressed a partisan interest somewhere else in the poll just don’t have a strong enough opinion on the race being polled yet but will eventually come home.
And I’m not impressed with your political acumen. Hank Johnson is running in the 4th.
And Elena Parent wins by 4-6%.
“Democrats retain both chambers” I thought Miss Jill was republican.
Seeing the future has never been my strong point, but I can try.
Governor- Runoff, with someone winning later.
Lt.Gov. & Senate- Why do the demos bother?
5th District- Hank Johnson tips Guam over.
HD81- I am not impressed by Elena. I think Jill stays in office.
The Georgia congressional candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin loses.
Oh, almost forgot:
Democrats keep the U.S. Senate with around 54-55 seats.
The Republican wave will get no higher than 40 seats; the party in control will have only a few seat advantage, either way.
Here goes:
Elena Parent beats Jill Chambers in HD-81.
Republicans take the Democratic open seats in HD-143 (Porter) and HD-176 (Shaw).
Eric Christ breaks 40% in SD-40.
Bishop barely wins based solely on district leanings alone.
Marshall goes down (good riddance).
Barrow wins comfortably but surprisingly close.
Heckman breaks at least 35% in GA-07.
Not a single statewide official will be a Democrat in 2011.
I just do. A hunch about late increased enthusiasm.
I’d agree with most of these projections… I hope we’re able to pull off one constitutional officers… I know the Hicks campaign has been working hard… and I can’t believe Cagle would be as high as the polling has him…
We’ll probably pick up a seat or two in the Legislature, but will probably lose a couple too…
Why do you think we’re going to be able to hold the House? I mean, I certainly hope we do, but I haven’t seen very many, if any, projections that show us holding an advantage in the House.
Article on the polling and cell only issue
http://www.polising.com/2010/10/mcclatchy-shocker-dems-and-gopers-tied.html#update
No. Barrow. Was shocked when I heard it.
I think it’s both Bishop and Barrow.. not to mention Marshall who was behind by 13 yesterday.. but who really knows for sure.
Word on the street is, youth ( 18-25), cell phone only and AA have been under sampled throughout this cycle.
You must mean Bishop, right?
If you are under 50% on your internals, you are losing.
I thought the rumor was Barrow was under 50% in his internals, not that he was actually losing. Being under 50% this late in the game is a bad sign, but if it just includes a high number of undecideds and both guys are in the 40s, it’s not necessarily the end of the world just yet.
Rumor just heard on Twitter
Barrow is losing….based on his on internal polls. If that’s true, you could be facing a 10-3 split with your only stronghold being a tight blue dot based on the southern of ITP Atlanta.
Unrelated to predictions – check out this ad – funny!
Titled: Cagle Doesn’t Give a Rip About Georgia!
Agree with the Elena Parent race! I think she has got Jill this time!! Hooray!!
I think Roy and Hodges are going to head to a run-off, where Hodges will beat Olens. For Roy to win it will all be GOTV and if anyone can do it, he can.
Bishop stays, Marshall loses.
If information on Cagle’s affairs can come out in the next couple of days and he gets the Richardson effect, then Carol Porter could win the Lt. Governor race.
I also think that Mary Squires has a good chance because of how nasty Hudgens is. They have done a good job of getting his negatives in the press.
I like all of Ed’s predictions save the Dems keeping the House. 39 seats is just way too friggin easy to take, particularly given how many swing or even soft Republican seats the Dems picked up in 2006 & 2008 that they now are trying to defend. I don’t think Republicans will take more than 50, though.
I think Bishop holds on barely, Marshall loses in epic fashion (as, frankly, he should) and it’s probably Darryl Hicks who has the best shot of taking a statewide office for the Dems.
I also think Elena Parent pulls it out against Jill Chambers in a close HD81 race, and the wicked witch has to go find something else to do with her time.
IRE: as a poster, and a progressive I basically don’t have anything to say about Jim Marshall.
While he might be a very nice guy-his votes on key issues don’t send me. He has a tough fight, but that’s not different from the last 2 cycles. His recent comments about Speaker Pelosi could seem opportunistic and pandering-but certainly in keeping with his views.
I don’t have enough information to comment on Bishop…
I’ll play Ed!
Roy gets the runoff then who the hell knows.
Thurmond loses and I’m not even voting for him. I love my former boss, but I’m not rewarding such a crappy campaign. Can it be called crappy if it’s non-existent?
Marhshall loses somewhere in the neighborhood of 53-47. Too much headwind.
Bishop. Well, Bishop. Democrats, I think this is your canary in the coal mine. If it goes south for Bishop, the Republican wave is going to be very, very high.
Hodges is your only shot at a Constitutional office. Maybe Squires in a long shot.
Leg remains unchanged for practical purposes.
Dem’s lost the house but by a narrower margin than most think. Retain Senate by somewhere between 3-4.
Couple of things. Has BforD posted anything about Bishop or Marshall this year?
I know no one here will like this but Marshall’s folks should be DPG chair/staff, depending on what happens this cycle. If they win they won’t need a job. But think about it, they’ve shown how to win in Georgia.
Also, I’m willing to place bets on this. Maybe not a parlay on the entire thing, but bets nonetheless.
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