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MA Senate predictions open thread

Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat will be filled today. Ataru’s prediction is that it won’t be filled by Martha Coakley, who has tried very hard to lose what should have been an unlosable race with such startling gambits as misspelling ‘Massachusetts’ and calling Red Sox hero Schilling a Yankees fan. The weather forecast is bad, meaning only the Republican base is guaranteed to show up. I predict Brown wins 54-46.

What are your thoughts? Does Choakley pull it out somehow? If she doesn’t, do you think health care is toast? Does Ted Kennedy cheer or smite her from the grave?

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Ataru Atlanta

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29 responses to “MA Senate predictions open thread”

  1. J.M. Prince Avatar
    J.M. Prince

    After action report via OFA conference call:

    In 4 days, 2.3Million phone calls were made into MA. The likely voter gap was closed from a chasm of 14% 10 days ago to 3% the day of the election. Still? About 900K-1Mill votes short comparing Obama totals in 2008 vs 2010.

    Plenty of former Obama supporters voted for Brown:

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/1/20/827827/-Mass-Brown-Supporter-Tries-to-Explain

    Like I’ve said, uninspiring candidates do not inspire voters. Especially if you’re only campaigning part time. It was largely a chronicle of a death foretold too. Evidently they’ll try for reconciliation now. Still be obviously need stiffer spines & more resolve. And really? We need Dr. Howard Dean back. He was literally the only one making much sense today. Which is nice but sad at the same time. JMP

  2. J.M. Prince Avatar
    J.M. Prince

    He did. Several times. No one much noticed. It’s even on the top of their tiny masthead if you look closely enough. But hey, part of the problem is that no one reads much anymore. JMP

  3. innerredneckexposed Avatar
    innerredneckexposed

    You’re writing for CAP? Why haven’t you mentioned that before?

  4. Stefan Avatar
    Stefan

    You think you aren’t doing enough? Really? You think that’s the problem?

  5. Zaid Avatar
    Zaid

    I don’t know, I’ve toned down a lot since I started working at CAP, but at the same time I see the anger out here as you guys sound exactly as I did a year ago. So whatever, I think we’re doing our best but it’s not good enough is my takeaway.

    http://trueslant.com/zaidjilani/2010/01/19/what-progressives-must-learn-from-senator-scott-brown/

  6. J.M. Prince Avatar
    J.M. Prince

    The land of Dukakis, Kerry & Coakley. We’ll never learn evidently. Uninspiring candidates mean uninspired voters. I got a fundraising letter from Webb just today. I’ve always liked him, but this? Is sheer idiocy. Plays up on all his ‘hot headed’ shoot from the hip tendencies. Sorry Jim, not this month, until something moves & you earn your keep. And yes, I wish all of them would keep off the TV. But than again I belong to no organized political party… But hey we got Tim Kaine coming for our JJ!

    JMP

  7. Sarawaraclara Avatar
    Sarawaraclara

    OK, I said 4 and she actually lost by 5, but I was close dammit!

    Jim Webb and anyone else who wants to act like everything gets scrapped now because we went from a 20 vote majority to an 18 vote majority can KISS MY ASS. It passed 2 damn houses of Congress and if you weren’t willing to sell HCR as a good thing when you return to your constituents, then what the hell were you voting for it for?

    *facepalm*

  8. Jason D. Avatar
    Jason D.

    Democratic failure in Massachusetts goes beyond Coakley though.

    Lest we forget.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/27/us/politics/27succeed.html?_r=1&hp

    Key passage:

    “Republicans have attacked Mr. Kennedy‚Äôs proposal as flagrantly partisan, and indeed, the state‚Äôs Democrats are in the awkward position of being asked to reverse their own 2004 vote to keep vacant Senate seats empty until a special election.

    Until that year, Massachusetts law had called for the governor to appoint a temporary replacement if a Senate seat became vacant. But when Senator John Kerry, a Democrat, was running for president in 2004, the Democratically-controlled State Legislature wanted to deny the Republican governor at the time, Mitt Romney, the power to name a successor if Mr. Kerry won. The resulting law requires a special election 145 to 160 days after the vacancy occurs.”

  9. Ataru Atlanta Avatar
    Ataru Atlanta

    Jim Webb says no to health care vote before Brown is seated: http://bit.ly/7Abg2G. That was the best hope for making this not destroy us.

  10. Ataru Atlanta Avatar
    Ataru Atlanta

    I’d be ok with *threatening* to go nuclear if it makes a compromise happen, but I’m against actually doing it.

  11. sndeak Avatar
    sndeak

    Ok. Let’s just go nuclear and blow up the 60 vote cloture rule. Make it simple majority. Enough of this mamby,pamby mealy-mouthed bipartisan crap.

  12. J.M. Prince Avatar
    J.M. Prince

    OK, I’ve been wrong before. But in the words of the immortal Al Franken, health care will pass no matter what. Me? I want to see the rotten misbegotten filibuster broken for good. And I want candidates who actually actively campaign for the office. And yes, Massholes are always hard on their women. Everywhere. That’s all for now. JMP

  13. sndeak Avatar
    sndeak

    Epic Fail. We suck.

    OFA to the rescue? Seriously? Please.

  14. Ataru Atlanta Avatar
    Ataru Atlanta

    Scattered tweets that Chokely has called Brown to concede. Can’t get http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/live_coverage_o.html to load for me but seems like a reasonable bet. Sigh.

  15. Ataru Atlanta Avatar
    Ataru Atlanta

    Chokely is down 7 with 60% reporting. Major network calls are thought to be imminent…

  16. innerredneckexposed Avatar
    innerredneckexposed

    I am either apathetic about the loss or happy we are about to get what we deserve. I’ll let y’all decide for me.

  17. Ataru Atlanta Avatar
    Ataru Atlanta

    Latest seems to be Brown 52%, Coakley 47% with 36% reporting. Larry Sabato and others are essentially calling for Brown.

  18. J.M. Prince Avatar
    J.M. Prince

    Caokley wins in a squeaker, and she’s basically got team OFA to thank for it. Late breakers for her, and the wave momentum towards Brown was stopped.

    And really IRE = the new Zaid? We’d lose IQ points on both sides of that, right? Just saying that on NPR a MA Voter also mentioned specifically about being called from ATL for the GOTV. I was still being called late this afternoon on same too. So it’ll hopefully all work. This is what you have an organization for. I mean other than the usual nuclear level whinging & all. They had about 100K calls into the state via OFA per day. That’s some work, it’s got to help. (That via Kos). JMP

  19. Zaid Avatar
    Zaid

    They had 60 they’ve already voted several times and gotten 60…

  20. Drew Avatar
    Drew

    So, how many votes did the Democratic Party have in the Senate when they began drafting the health care bill last year this time?

    58. Franken was not yet seated.

    How many will they have if Coakley loses?

    59. When Brown is seated, which may not be for a week or more.

    I’m just sayin’.

  21. sndeak Avatar
    sndeak

    IRE = the new Zaid.

    Only in America!

  22. Zaid Avatar
    Zaid

    Since I started working on the inside, I have become less critical of the Dems, but it’s funny that IRE has basically become the old me.

  23. innerredneckexposed Avatar
    innerredneckexposed

    And can I say this? F*ck the Democrats. They couldn’t get shit done with 60 seats, why the hell would I care if they have 59? Fuck them seriously we deserve to lose Congress this year. And don’t bitch and whine about it either how much has changed since we took over in 2006? Ain’t shit as far as I can tell. We capitulated to Bush, then capitulated to Republicans and now are just capitulating to ourselves.

    Fuck it dude, I mean Republicans get whatever the fuck they want with 50 seats and we can’t do fuck all we deserve to lose.

  24. innerredneckexposed Avatar
    innerredneckexposed

    “The weather forecast is bad, meaning only the Republican base is guaranteed to show up.”

    Uh, dude…you do realize it is Massachusetts where bad weather is the norm and expected in the middle of January?

  25. Voice for Votes Avatar
    Voice for Votes

    Special Elections for Massachusetts US Senate Today you can compare the candidates at the video wire page http://voiceforvotes.com/videowire.html

  26. Voice for Votes Avatar
    Voice for Votes

    Special Elections for Massachusetts US Senate Today you can compare the candidates at the video wire page http://voiceforvotes.com/videowire.html

  27. sndeak Avatar
    sndeak

    Coakley wins

  28. Stefan Avatar
    Stefan

    DSCC poll has Coakley winning by 1.2 after Obama’s visit. I don’t know though.

  29. Sara Avatar
    Sara

    Coakley loses by 4. I wish I were wrong about this, but having lived in MA for 8 years I can tell when someone is about to go down in flames. Also, female candidates almost always underperform there. Only 4 women have been elected to statewide office in MA ever, 1 of whom is Coakley in the AG slot. No woman has ever been governor, Senator, mayor of Boston, and Niki Tsongas very recently became the first female Congresswoman elected in MA in 25 years. The state’s “Democratic” voters are uniformly fairly moderate and largely unionized, and many anecdotal reports and polls have the unions bleeding heavily to Brown.

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